The number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 2 million. It is expected that new energy vehicles based on pure electric vehicles will completely replace fuel vehicles in the near future. However, to make the era of new energy vehicles come full, price is a threshold. All-media reporters noticed that the current battery accounts for about 40% of the cost of electric vehicles, which is one of the reasons for the high price of electric vehicles. When will the price of new energy vehicles fall, even cheaper than fuel vehicles? In this regard, the industry has a broad consensus in the near future: as soon as 2020, the cost of pure electric vehicles will drop by nearly 40%, that is, the price is expected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles after five years.

Driven by various subsidies, the number of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 2 million. However, new energy vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, are currently expensive, and there may be no interest if there is no national or local subsidy. Moreover, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will gradually tighten in the future. All media reporters noticed that in the new energy subsidy new policy that began to be implemented on June 12 this year, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a battery life of less than 300 kilometers was reduced by 50%. Vehicles with less than 150 km of battery life will no longer be subsidized. By 2020, the subsidy policy will be completely eliminated. For this trend, many consumers have questioned: Now a new energy vehicle with a comprehensive cruising range of more than 400 kilometers, the price after subsidy is equivalent to about 60% of the official guide price. There is no subsidy in the future. Even if the car companies cut prices, the price of the car that consumers have to bear is at least 30% higher. Is it worth choosing?

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Federation of the Federation, said that the abolition of subsidies is the general trend. Only the policy tightens, and the true strength of each car company can be reflected. Therefore, even if the subsidies are completely cancelled in the future, there is no need to worry. As the car companies shift most of their energy to the field of new energy vehicles, technological advancement and mass production will eventually lower the overall efficiency of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles. Price.

The positive effects brought about by the implementation of the subsidy New Deal are significant. The electric vehicles in the market with low prices and extremely low cruising range have been eliminated. Although most of the self-owned brand new energy vehicles on the market still have some problems in the quality of details, workmanship and body parts, the improvement of battery life, These are all visible improvements in quality.

Investigation: Why is pure electric vehicles so expensive?

Current cost structure of electric vehicles

Why is the price of pure electric vehicles in the mainstream of the new energy market so expensive? Take a self-owned brand electric vehicle as an example, the lowest official price of the fuel version is only about 70,000 yuan, but the minimum official price of the electric version is 210,000 yuan. After deducting the national and local subsidies, the market price of the market is The minimum is also around 130,000 yuan.

In addition, the cost of pure electric vehicles is not only the production cost, but also the huge research and development costs. Since the current sales volume is not high, the research and development cost of each production pure electric vehicle is very high. When the sales of electric vehicles increase and the cost of batteries decreases, can the price of pure electric vehicles be reduced? The answer is yes.

How hard is it to reduce battery costs?

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated in the "Long-term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry"that "by 2020, the new energy vehicle power battery system will strive to reach 260 wh/kg than the energy, and the cost will be reduced to less than 1 yuan / watt hour."And "China's automobile industry in 2018"The Development Report is more optimistic. The estimated cost of power batteries is 1 yuan/Wh by the end of 2018. By 2025, the battery cost is 0.55 yuan/Wh. This is almost two-thirds lower than the current battery cost.

Industry experts believe that this data means that after the subsidy subsidy, electric vehicles can compete with traditional fuel vehicles in price after three or five years.

Prediction: How much can the cost of electric vehicles fall in the future?

In the next five years, the price of pure electric vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles. It is not a fantasy. Sun Liqing and other experts believe that the new energy vehicles based on pure electric vehicles in the next five years will experience two stages of significant cost reduction: in 2018-2019, due to increased competition, overcapacity, after the A-class subsidy of 300km The price will probably drop to 100,000 yuan and below; the second phase will be from 2020 to 2021, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be withdrawn, and the new energy vehicles will have a large-scale effect, and the cruising range will be 300 km after the A-class subsidy. The price will probably drop to around 80,000 yuan.

Experts from the National Automobile Distribution Association said that according to the industry's own development drive and policy orientation, after 2025, the cost of electric vehicles will be equal to the cost of fuel vehicles, and even the price will not be higher than that of fuel vehicles.

At present, battery technology is in a period of key technological breakthroughs. It is expected that it will be able to develop non-extended battery with a cruising range of 800~1000 km around 2020. By then, pure electric vehicles are expected to be fully popularized.

However, some experts also cautiously believe that at least until 2025, the price of some electric vehicles will be cheaper than the same level of fuel vehicles